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THE CUTTING EDGE

Jerry Hulton, Under Secretary of the Navy, spoke by videotape to introduce Peter Schwartz. Hulton said that the pace of globalization is accelerating, and we must understand both the depth and direction of this global change.

Peter Schwartz is a Futurist and Corporate Scenario Planner. He advises Shell and Mobil Oil, and other companies. He even is writing a movie with Steven Spielberg.

Peter Schwartz

1. We live in a world of fundamental change. We make decisions based upon perception not necessarily fact. Once you believe a wrong map, you do the wrong things. The world today is so different that maps of yesteryear will be wrong for tomorrow. Applying an old map or model to new situations will not work.
2. What has not been foreseen is unlikely to be seen in time. Asking wrong questions can get you defeated.
3. Strategy of any type is interplay of intentions with the forces of the real world. Intended strategy may not succeed against the forces of the real world.
4. Right Questions To Ask

1. Is history going to be a good guide for the future? Most situations today will not work well in this rapidly changing world.
2. True Forces work outside the system of the world. They work outside the local system, and it is possible to see the changes inside

1. Even if we can see correctly, what kind of reality do we believe?

1. Intrinsic conservatism is correct strategy
2. You undertake the military option not lightly
3. You work to better understand forces
4. You work to create better models

1. Getting into the Real World to see what is really occurring. No substitute for this
2. What do we do?

1. Watch and Wait
2. Identify New Capabilities
3. Implement New Capabilities
4. Change the Rules of the Game

1. For institutions, resources is not an issue

1. Need openness to new information and technologies
2. Need diversity to let really good ideas into the organization. Really good ideas usually come from a clash in viewpoints.

1. Important Challenges Are Immediately Ahead. These challenges are:

1. Demographic Realities -- Population bomb has been diffused. Every year in the last five years, the U.N. has dramatically decreased its estimate of maximum population, from 25 billion five years ago to just 11 billion in 1999.
2. Europe is at zero growth
3. Japan is less than zero growth. For first time ever in history, a population has evolved that is 25% over 65 years old.
4. S. Africa is experiencing large population growth
5. India and Pakistan are experiencing large population growth
6. China is maturing its population, but still experiencing huge growth. Every 2 years, Chinese population is increasing the size of Japan's total population. This means that, every two years, a new Japan emerges within China. China has people to use as fodder.

1. Who Are the Types of People In The World?

1. Elites -- I connect, I try to control
2. Pragmatists -- I consume, want decent life now.
3. Believers -- above all, I believe in a cause and are willing to die for it.
4. Marginals -- two kinds

1. I feel left out, am mad about it, and want my turn [Estimates 600 million people around the world are angry and want their turn now.
2. I feel left out and don't care

1. Emphasis on Believers

1. Care about one big issue
2. Driven by identity, not connections or possessions
3. Won't or can't compromise on the one big issue about which they care most, because the issue defines their identity.
4. Believers have full range of economic status
5. Believers have very clear and wide vision when it comes to one big issue
6. Believers are clear of hierarchy concerns
7. Believers leverage their numbers and power by gaining access to technology

1. Surprising Outcomes

1. End of Nation State -- Or maybe just and end to the state's monopoly on legitimate use of force
2. Emergence of non-state agencies of order -- Example: Doctors Without Borders
3. New kind of great power nation is emerging, a market now sells classic geopolitical advantages. Organizations now have a distinct advantage

1. Major Discontinuity of Technology Is Coming

1. Computers have very important effects, potential for discontinuous change now exists.
2. Information technology is seeing organizations and individuals taking up new technologies very fast.
3. Changes occurring now are as large as those which occurred at the beginning of the 19^th Century.
4. Technology advance has collapsed the cycle of required processes from years to only hours in some instances. [Later Navy speakers told of collapsing the cycle of processing information and reaching battlefield decisions by 50%]
5. Information Technology is leading to a birth of Network Economy

1. Biotechnology -- Areas of Change and Impact

1. Genetic Revolution
2. Rational Biology Era
3. Biotechtronics -- Natural Implants
4. Life-enhancing Drug Revolution
5. Industrial Ecology

1. Practical Effects of these areas of change and impact

1. End of aging will occur in next decade.
2. Will create new human intelligences that cannot mate with humans.
3. Reason for religion will be eliminated by the end of death . Immortal cow is now alive and undergoing experimentation. Science has concluded there is no fundamental reason man has to die. Soon, a 1,000-year life will be possible. The scientific breakthroughs have already occurred. [Emphasis added]
4. People will stop aging at 40 years and get no older. People who are now past 40 but in good health will be able to roll back their aging to what they were in 40. Peter Schwartz says he will get all his hair back.

1. Energy -- Great Changes Are Coming

1. There is now plenty of oil
2. Switch away from oil is now possible
3. World of Electricity. Electricity is the final form of use, even in transportation.
4. Fuel cell era. Vehicles will no longer run on the internal combustion engine. The Internal Combustion Age is over.
5. Beginnings of Hydrogen Economy
6. Nuclear Renewables Surprise? New technology will make nuclear generation of electricity so environmentally safe that activist groups will demand we use nuclear generation!

1. Very Rapid Climate Changes Are Occurring. This global warming will eventually flip into global cooling.
2. War at Home, On American Soil, will become a reality. Terrorist groups will resort to financial and economic terrorism as well as physical destruction of people and property.
3. Two Worlds

1. World driven by believers will produce disorder, decay, and war
2. Long Room -- Radical technology will produce prosperity, rich enough and fast enough to remove the reason to go to war. Prosperity is planned that will make all countries too wealthy to go to war.
3. Wars occur because:

1. Honor
2. Fear
3. National Interest

Are you spiritually ready? Is your family? Are you adequately protecting your loved ones? This is the reason for this ministry, to enable you to first understand the peril facing you, and then help you develop strategies to warn and protect your loved ones. Once you have been thoroughly trained, you can also use your knowledge as a means to open the door of discussion with an unsaved person. I have been able to use it many times, and have seen people come to Jesus Christ as a result. These perilous times are also a time when we can reach many souls for Jesus Christ, making an eternal difference.