Democracy or 'cut and run'? New U.S. man in Iraq is not known for bucking the bad guys -
Explanation of the humiliation of US ally Chalabi: He knew too much
DOSSIER: Lakhdar Brahimi
Brahimi worked out an agreement that consolidated Syria's military occupation
of Lebanon for at least a decade.
Lakhdar Brahimi
Age: 70
Mission: UN special envoy to Iraq
Whereabouts: Iraq
The Bush administration's agreement for Lakhdar Brahimi, special adviser to
secretary general, to choose the next interim Iraqi government could signal
the end of U.S. efforts to establish democracy in Iraq. The appointment appears
to be part of a scenario in which the United States plans to order troops home
after a general election in Iraq by the end of the year. Under this scenario,
Iraq will have had its election, the United States will have declared victory
and the only losers may be those who hope for Iraqi and Arab democracy.
"The decision to allow Brahimi to run Iraq until the end of the year means
the administration has embarked on a cut-and-run policy," a senior congressional
aide involved in U.S. policy on Iraq said. "The policy is based on pleasing
the same Arab despots that the administration has sought to oppose to perhaps
win a few months of quiet in Iraq just enough time for the U.S. to get
out."
The choice of Brahimi could not have given a better indication of the administration's
about-face on Iraq. Brahimi symbolizes everything that the administration's
so-called democratic reform policy for the Arab world opposes. For decades,
Brahimi's job in the Arab League, Algerian Foreign Ministry and UN has been
to ensure the Arab status quo. No democracy, no human rights, no peaceful avenues
for change have been noticeable items on his agenda
Brahimi has been particularly close to such so-called models of democracy as
Algeria, Egypt, Jordan and Saudi Arabia. He was foreign minister of and chief
apologist for Algeria during the worst excesses of the military regime from
1991 to 1993. His daughter is engaged to the brother of Jordan's King Abdullah.
Brahimi is regarded as extremely close to Arab League Secretary-general Amr
Mussa and to the Egyptian leadership.
Brahimi's conduct during the Taif talks to end the civil war in Lebanon offers
a glimpse into how this diplomat operates. Brahimi worked out an agreement that
consolidated Syria's military occupation of Lebanon for at least a decade. That
gave Damascus enough time to so thoroughly co-opt the government and elite in
Beirut that not one prominent Lebanese politician has since called for the withdrawal
of Syrian troops from Lebanon. Indeed, such a call has been regarded as a crime
in Lebanon.
Top U.S. administrator in Iraq, L. Paul Bremer, center, and the new Iraqi Governing
Council chief Ghazi Mashal Ajil al-Yawer, right, and U.N. envoy to Iraq Lakhdar
Brahimi, left, stand among other officials and relatives during a memorial service
for the chairman of the Iraqi Governing Council, Izzadine Saleem in Baghdad
on May 18.
Iraqi sources said Brahimi who helped set up the new government in Afghanistan
has approached his current job in Iraq in a similar way to that of Taif
lots of talk but leave the real authority in the hands of the despots.
They said that during his first meeting with the Iraqi Governing Council, Brahimi
made it clear that he was not just meeting them as a UN envoy, but rather as
a "brother Arab." For those Kurds and Shi'ites, who form the majority
of the IGC, the message was clear: You are not wanted.
Already, Brahimi has focused on marginalizing Kurds and Shi'ites in any Iraqi
leadership with the Kurds being the first target. He told the Kurds that they
would not be included in the first level of Iraqi leadership. Instead, the Kurds
were offered one of the two vice presidents, a formula used in the Arab world
to provide an impressive title bereft of authority. The Kurds have already rejected
the proposal, which expected to delay U.S. hopes for general elections in Iraq
in January 2005.
The Shi'ites have also been shifting uneasily. Brahimi appears to be passing
over the democrats in the Shi'ite community and instead seeks those who are
ready to guarantee the minority Sunni community with a leading role in Iraq.
And when Brahimi talks of Sunnis, he means Saddam's former thugs.
Iraqi sources that have attended Brahimi's meetings said the UN envoy plans
to appoint a figurehead perhaps Sharif Ali - as president. But
the real power will lay with Ali's deputy who almost certainly will be a former
Saddam aide. As Brahimi sees it, Iraqis need a strong hand.
Ahmad Chalabi failed to persuade the White House. The sight of U.S. boys dying
daily in Iraq without a clear exit strategy was not seen as a reelection strategy.
Brahimi has made it clear that he opposes removing Ba'athists from power. He
said U.S. efforts to remove the Ba'athists from government, schools, police
and the military have been extreme. The 2 million Ba'athists in Iraq carried
out Saddam's policy of torture, death and deportation. The only criteria for
government jobs was Ba'athist membership. In Saddam's world, there were no technocrats.
As a result, the U.S. military was ordered to release Iraqi terrorists and criminals
en masse from Abu Gharib prison. Saddam's former generals and troops were given
the keys to Fallujah, the heart of the Sunni insurgency against the U.S.-led
coalition.
Ironically, the U.S. "de-Ba'athification" policy has been deemed the
most popular policy in Iraq. CPA chief Paul Bremer continues to be thanked by
ordinary Iraqis for removing Saddam loyalists that did nothing for the country
other than rob and kill.
Why the about-face in the Bush administration? Senior U.S. State Department
officials will tell you straight: The administration was wrong in its Iraqi
strategy. The plan should have been to just get rid of Saddam and leave the
rest to the UN. As these officials see it, the Iraqis, along with the rest of
the Arabs, are basically criminals and incapable of democracy.
"Iraq is very much a tribal society, and tribal leaders and tribal membership
is extraordinarily important, and I think we were not as farsighted on that
as possible," said Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage. "The
second thing is I don't think any of us had realized the extent to which much
of Iraq had become a criminal society during the time of Saddam Hussein; and
particularly since the sanctions, people had become very entrepreneurial in
criminal enterprise, and I think that was an element that we hadn't properly
expected. So those are a couple of my disappointments."
Armitage made clear that the United States has essentially dropped its reform
policy in both Iraq as well as the rest of the Arab world.
Washington will serve as a cheerleader, nothing more.
"To the extent they spread democracy, it will be by their example,"
Armitage said. "Let's be clear on that."
Already, the Iraqi experiment has shown that, given stability, Iraqis will make
the right choices and reject despotic regime sponsors.
U.S. officials said that in the March and April local elections that took place
in the Shi'ite provinces in southern Iraq, independents and representatives
of non-religious parties beat the Islamists backed by Iran in nearly every case.
Take away the belief that the U.S. wants a real election in Iraq by having
Brahimi stack the deck against independents and Iraqis will choose the
candidates they fear most.
There is one obstacle to the administration's policy Ahmad Chalabi. The
State Department, CIA and parts of the White House regard Chalabi as a dangerous
man. Simply put, he knows too much.
Chalabi has repeatedly warned the United States not to backtrack on its decision
to remove Saddam's aides from power.
Chalabi said allowing Saddam's generals to command the army and security forces
would destroy any chance of democracy in the country and threaten to split Iraq
into Kurdish, Shi'ite and Sunni zones. He has also threatened to release damaging
details on the corruption in the UN oil-for-food program, which included high
UN officials, possibly including the son of Secretary-general Kofi Annan.
"I have opened up the investigation of the oil-for-food program, which
has cast doubt about the integrity of the UN here," Chalabi said. "They
don't like this."
But Bush and Secretary of State Colin Powell were not to be dissuaded. They
are convinced that unless the administration converts Iraq into an international
problem, the U.S. will never succeed in leaving Iraq. The sight of U.S. boys
dying daily in Iraq without a clear exit strategy is not seen as a reelection
strategy.
"There will be some Ba'athists who wind up getting back into positions
of power in violation of the policy people with blood on their hands,
people who were directly involved in the former regime's crimes, and when that's
made available to us, we will get to the bottom of it and ensure that they're
out of positions of power," CPA senior adviser Dan Senor said. "But
we need to know who these people are."
The first thing the administration did was to cut off funding for Chalabi and
his Iraqi National Congress (INC). The INC had been receiving $335,000 a month
from the Defense Department to provide intelligence. And none other than Gen.
Richard Myers, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, has testified that INC-provided
intelligence saved American lives.
The second goal by CIA and State was to discredit Chalabi. Former U.S. officials,
including a current lobbyist to an Arab state, have been feeding the major U.S.
media word that Chalabi relayed U.S. funding and intelligence information to
Iran. Of course, Chalabi has not been formally charged or even accused on the
record by any U.S. official.
The third goal was to humiliate Chalabi. The CPA and the Iraqis had arranged
for television news crews to record Chalabi and his top aides being led out
in handcuffs. But Chalabi outwitted the U.S. authorities, and he was not at
home.
Brahimi's role in Baghdad with U.S. endorsement could destroy
Iraq once and for all. The assessment by many Iraqis is that the United States
will begin to withdraw its troops from Iraq after the presidential elections
in November. By mid-2005, most U.S. troops will be out of the country and Iraq
will be plunged into civil war. Iran will grab the Shi'ite areas of central
and southern Iraq. Turkey will invade northern Iraq. And Jordan and Saudi Arabia
will vie for control over the Sunni minority.
For Washington, time is short. U.S. officials hope that Brahimi will come up
with names for the new interim Iraqi government by the first week of June. The
proposed government will be presented to the UN and work has already begun on
a Security Council resolution to endorse the arrangement.
Powell has spent much of his time trying to convince Congress of Brahimi's usefulness
to administration policy. He hopes that Brahimi will win Iraq international
recognition and a UN peacekeeping role that would include Arab states. Already,
Egypt, Jordan, Morocco and Oman have signaled their willingness to contribute
troops under a UN umbrella.
"Brahimi is not an unknown to us," Powell said. "Ambassador Brahimi
worked with us in Afghanistan. We really need the UN, and we work with the UN.
And for people who say we want to internationalize this, that means the United
Nations, it means NATO, it means other international organizations."
Geostrategy-Direct, www.geostrategy-direct.com, June 1, 2004
Copyright © 2003 East West Services, Inc. All rights reserved.
Emphasis added