Bush Prepares Nation For War, Part One
Iraq May Have 80 WMD-Capable Missiles
by DEBKAfile
5 October 2002
In his radio address Saturday, October 5, President George W. Bush further sharpened the options in advance of his major address to the nation Monday, October 7. He said: If the Iraqi regime persists in its defiance, the use of force may become unavoidable.
His sense of urgency was marked in this assertion: Delay, indecision,
and inaction are not an option for America because that could lead to massive
and sudden horror.
The contrast between the stressful tones emanating from Washington and the
soothing statements from one Israeli official after another is striking.
Friday, October 4, IDF chief of staff, Lt. Gen. Moshe Yaalon, reiterated that
he is not worried about Iraq; Israel, he said, had drawn ahead of Iraq to
create a substantial gap in the last ten years. He was more disturbed by the
Palestinian menace.
On Saturday, October 5, chief of military intelligence Maj. Gen. Aharon Zeevi
declared in a TV talk show that there is no missile presence in western Iraq,
although the continuation of this situation depended on the deployment of
American troops. But, he said, Baghdad had other options, such as aircraft
from dropping chemicals over Israel. He believed that Israels ability
to intercept any such threat had advanced far beyond what it was in 1991.
Other Israeli military sources admit Iraq may have one or two mobile missile
launchers in the area but do not consider this cause for concern. Knesset
Member Yuval Steinitz, who is considered a strategic expert, claims that Iraqs
weaponry does not warrant being classified as weapons of mass destruction.
This term should apply only to nuclear devices, not chemical or biological
weapons.
Former military intelligence commander, Amos Malka, remarked that he gave
his children a list of dangers they should beware of. Traffic accidents came
first, followed by terrorism and Iraqi missile attack in third place.
Drawing on its latest information, DEBKAfiles sources would reverse
that order.
General Yaalons anxiety to play down the Iraqi threat led him to a fallacy:
the technological gap between Israel and the Palestinians is many times greater
than it is with Iraq. Yet he himself calls the Palestinian-Israeli war that
has dragged on for two years and cost 650 Israeli lives and thousands of wounded,
the toughest in Israeli history. And the contest is not over, certainly not
won.
The gap between combatant forces is only one factor in a geo-strategic equation
and not necessarily the decisive one.
This the Americans discovered when they brought their techno-military might
to bear against al Qaeda and the Taliban inAfghanistan. Regime change was
accomplished in Kabul, but both enemies are very much alive and rampant.
Russia reached the same impasse in Chechnya.
In Bethlehem, the presence of Israeli defense forces and an imported, well-trained
Jordanian-Palestinian military unit, cannot prevent this small town on Jerusalems
southern boundary from sliding back as a hotbed of West Bank violence.
Last Tuesday, October 1, defense minister Binyamin Ben Eliezer, said: The
Iraqis are trying to advance a battery or two of mobile missile launchers
into H-3. Lets see if they make it.
The question is: Where are the Iraqis advancing those batteries from? And
who is there to stop them? If that is what they are up to, why does the head
of military intelligence say there are no missiles in West Iraq?
If, nonetheless, Iraqi missiles are deployed somewhere between central and
western Iraq in such locations as the H-2 air base or the Tikrit region -
and are trying to advance them closer to the Jordanian frontier to the west
(400 kilometers from Israel) in order to fire them off - might it not be better
to say so?
Israelis were informed Saturday, October 5, that America was sending more
improved Patriot anti-missile batteries next week. American Patriots are already
deployed in Israel, and so are two Israeli Arrow-2 anti-missile missile emplacements,
covering the northern, central and southern regions. So, if no Iraqi missiles
are parked within striking distance of Israel, why are extra Patriots being
rushed over?
When we put this question to a well-placed Israeli military source, the answer
was: The Americans are playing it safe an answer as imprecise as most
other official Israeli assertions.
According to DEBKAfiles military and American sources, there is a reason
for all this evasive, cagey Israeli rhetoric; US and Israeli intelligence
assessors dont see eye to eye on the sum of Iraqi missile capabilities,
or in the way the two countries need to prepare for war.
US armed forces, before going to war in the Middle East, have exhaustively
researched pertinent areas and gathered certain specific data. The file the
Americans have built up on the dangers facing Israel is not encouraging.
Some of the data comes from a report published on September 25 by the Heritage
Foundation, which is close to the White House and the Pentagon, on the impact
of an unconventional Iraqi attack on Tel Aviv. Here are some high points:
1. A warhead with 400 kilograms of the nerve gas sarin and an unprotected
population would leave 59,000 casualties.
2. An Iraqi missile filled with botulinum would kill 50,000.
3. One missile carrying 450 kilos of VX nerve gas would kill 43,000 unprotected
people.
The masks allocated to every Israeli can protect against biological and chemical
agents.
4. The author of the report, Dexter Ingram, believes Iraq needs another six
months to two years to become a nuclear power. An Iraqi warhead of one kiloton
carried by Baghdads al Hussein missiles (which has a range of 650 km)
could kill 75,000.
US analysts believe Iraq may have up to 80 such missiles which could be tipped
with biological and chemical warheads. The Iraq dossier that British prime
minister Tony Blair laid before parliament last week estimated the number
of Al Hussein missiles at 20.
In recent weeks, DEBKAfiles military sources estimated Saddam commanded
between 35 and 50 missiles of all types, as well as air craft, drones and
kamikaze pilots capable of dropping chemical and biological agents over Israel."
[Emphasis added]