Under Iraq War Shadow
Sharon Fights for Strategic Footing
by DEBKAfile
23 September 2002
The weathervane of US-Israel relations has begun to hover between fair and cloudy as the Bush administrations assault on Iraq approaches. DEBKAfiles Washington and Jerusalem sources say the trouble is not related to Israels isolation of Yasser Arafat in Ramallah that episode is closely coordinated with the White House but to developing dissonances over the Iraq campaign.
In one of the first surface Indicators of this unease, Israeli prime minister
Ariel Sharon, in one of his pre-New Year interviews earlier this month, suddenly
came out with a revelation not about Iraq or even Iran, but aboutEgypts
previously unheard of nuclear program. He informed an unsuspecting American
and Israeli public that a Libyan program was well advanced to build the first
Arab-Muslim nuclear bomb as a joint Egyptian, Iraqi enterprise funded by Saudi
Arabia.
Sharons revelation was not repeated. According to DEBKAfiles Washington
sources, the Bush team jumped on him for stirring up embarrassing mud when
Washington needed help from Egypt and Saudi Arabia to fight Saddam Hussein.
The timing was unfortunate. In early August, Saudi Crown Prince Abdullah and
Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak had been finally brought round to making
bases available for the campaign. They agreed half-heartedly to turning a
blind eye Abdullah, to American military use of the Prince Sultan air
base east of Riyadh; Mubarak, to the American aircraft touching down and lifting
off from the big military base at Cairo West and US warships cruising up and
down the Suez Canal.
DEBKA-Net-Weekly (No. 76) first revealed on August 2 that Cairo West had been
converted into the main logistic and jumping off base for US assault troops
going into Iraq, while the Suez Canal (despite the Egyptian rulers public
denials of Egypts involvement) is being used by American warships and
aircraft carriers bound for the Persian Gulf and Red Sea as a crucial short
cut from the Mediterranean.
Slapped down on the Arab nuclear issue, Sharon came up with a new one: He
defined as a casus belli Lebanons project to tap the Hatsbani River
by pumping water from its main tributary the Wazzani and diverting 15 percent
of Israels water supply. The Hatsbani is fed additionally by subterranean
springs near Ajar, the border village split between Israel and Lebanon. And
a further complication: the Hizballah has posted armed guards at the Lebanese
project on top of the thousands of missiles the Lebanese Shiite terrorists
have positioned along the Lebanese-Israeli frontier all pointed at
northern Israel.
Washington, fearing an untimely conflagration, again asked Sharon to hold
his horses, while a panel of American water experts hurried over to review
the rights and wrongs of the situation and report to the US administration.
Although Israel assigned its own water and intelligence experts, such as retired
general Uri Shani, chairman of the Mekorot Water Company, to keeping the issue
alive, the Bush administrations efforts had until last week succeeded
in muting the discord surrounding this and other Middle East flashpoints.
But then the cat was let out of the bag. At a House Armed Services Committee
hearing, Joel Hefley (R-Colorado) put a question to defense secretary Donald
Rumsfeld: If we attack (Saddam), he showed in the Persian Gulf War that
hell send missiles to Israel. If he sends dirty bombs to Israel
I
dont think we can restrain Israel this time.
Rumsfelds reply: It would be in Israels overwhelmingly best
interests not to get involved.
Our analysts translate this as a message from Washington to Riyadh and Cairo
in respect of Israels plan to crush Arafats regime in Ramallah
with Washingtons assent. The message ran like this: We are holding Israel
in check on the Libyan-Egyptian-Saudi nuclear bomb and the Wazzani water dispute;
it is up to you to hold quiet for the Israeli assault on Arafats power
base.
What would Egypt and Saudi have to gain from their silence? The intelligence
data reaching Washington on a potential Iraqi pre-emptive attack points to
Israel as Saddams preferred target in the Middle East.
If Washington can this time too persuade Israel to sit on its hands in the
face of an Iraqi attack, its deterrent and strike capabilities will be seriously
impaired - as they were in 1991.The Jewish state will come out of the Iraqi
conflict beaten and debilitated, while Egypt and Saudi Arabia have every chance
of escaping Saddam Husseins ire and emerging stronger.
The small price for this reward will be to abandon Arafat to his fate.
And, indeed, the silence from Cairo and Riyadh over Arafats plight has
been deafening.
American-Israeli sparring over Iraq has only just begun. Our Washington sources
believe that the Bush administration will push hard to prevent Israel from
reacting militarily to an Iraqi strike even if it is a terrorist attack.
At the same time, Sharon will be given free rein to grab the top terror team
under Arafats protection in Ramallah, including Tawfiq Tirawi, West
Bank General Intelligence chief and the commander of the suicidal al Aqsa
Martyrs Brigades. Putting Tirawi, who takes care of Iraqi military intelligence
agents on the West Bank, out of commission is also in Americas military
interests.
The Bush administration has found support from two distinguished senators
for its drive to force Israel to hold still in the face of assault from Baghdad.
Sunday, September 22,, Joseph R. Biden Jr. (D.-Delaware) chairman of the foreign
relations Committee and Richard C. Shelby (R.-Alabama), vice chairman of the
Senate Select Committee on Intelligence, both warned that retaliation by Israel
could mean a widespread war in the Middle East. Shelby added: Wed
also be perceived as fighting side by side with the Israelis against all the
Arab interests. Both appeared on CBSs Face the Nation..
DEBKAfile s Washington sources discern in these moves the beginning
of the blame game, one that is destined to be played out should the US offensive
against Baghdad tip the Middle East into overall conflict or run into unforeseen
setbacks. The finger will then swivel round to point at Sharon instead of
Washington or any Arab government.
Sunday, September 22, when he saw this coming, the Israeli leader abruptly
ordered IDF bulldozers to back off and stop tearing down the buildings housing
Arafats ruling institutions in Ramallah, although he left the choking,
isolating siege in place. He needed time out to ponder whether Arafats
eclipse would be worth the price of restraint in the face of Iraqi aggression
a decision more crucial than any the 74-year old ex-general has ever
confronted, and one that will determine Israelis fate and regional standing
for a decade or more.
President George W. Bush is facing hard dilemmas of his own, as too is Saudi
Prince Abdullah. By receiving the US war commander, General Tommy Franks,
on Sunday, September 22, the Saudi de facto ruler was signaling Saddam Hussein
that, if he played his cards right, a second golden opportunity for undermining
Israel had been dropped in their laps by Washington